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日本保守派政治家高市早苗贏得自民黨總裁選舉,成為該黨的第一位女性總裁,也很可能將成為日本首位女性首相。有分析人士擔心,其強硬外交立場或將激化與中國及韓國的關係。

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高市的政治立場屬於保守強硬派。強硬主張維持父系男子的皇位繼承制,並計畫以「早苗經濟學」之名,繼承安倍經濟學的積極財政與貨幣寬鬆政策。為了獲得安倍擁護者的支持,她在去年的自民黨總裁選舉中曾公開承諾「即使當上首相,也會去參拜靖國神社」,但此次表現出了模棱兩可的態度。她尊敬的人物,是英國前首相柴契爾夫人。

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此次選舉背景下,一個名為「參政黨」的新政黨正在崛起。它與其他民粹主義運動如出一轍,把移民稱作「一場無聲的入侵」,並把各種社會問題歸咎於外來人口。

高市當天表示:「這開創了自民黨的新時代。將讓我黨成為把許多人的不安變為希望的政黨。」

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在總裁選舉期間,齋藤曾表示:“如果候選人不符合我們保守中道路線的理念,我們無法組成聯合政權。”

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在自民黨的黨首競選中,高市和小泉都試圖吸引那些被參政黨「反外國人」論調打動的選民——無論這些外國人是移民還是大量的遊客。

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總之高市早苗的政治立場明顯偏右,她在歷史認知與國家安全問題上態度強硬,然而,歷史經驗表明,日本首相在上任後往往會在現實外交壓力下調整立場。正如安倍晉三在第二任期內逐漸從“修憲先鋒”、“保守的歷史觀”轉向務實外交,推進與中韓的友好關係一樣,高市早苗在就任後,預計也將暫時擱置部分意識形態等議題,以維持與中韓等近鄰國家的基本關係穩定,從她上面的一些發言來看,已經表現出了一定的靈活性。

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